Analyst: Home price declines coming, but that could be a good thing

Posted on: January 2nd, 2012 by jenmatt 1 Comment

If banks ramp up next year and begin moving backlogged foreclosure inventory onto the market, homeowners and buyers could see further home price drops and those declines could go as deep as 10% to 15%, said Lance Roberts, CEO, economist and chief strategist at StreettalkAdvisors.

Yet, Roberts in his forecast for 2012 adds a bit of humor to his predictions. He is confident, but not overly committal to a forecast, and chuckles when pointing out that the media and mainstream financial analysts previously called for home price bottoms in 2010 and 2011. Now many are forecasting a bottom in 2012, but Roberts is careful to recognize all the many knowns and unknowns that weigh on economies.

“I am in the camp that we are going to have slower economic growth (in 2012),” he said.

Currently, other analysts are projecting 2% to 2.5% growth. Roberts sees a sub-2% or 1% growth rate for next year.

“There is a current belief that the U.S. can grow even as China slows and the eurozone goes into recession,” Roberts said in an interview with HousingWire. “But 20% of our exports go to the eurozone. If they go into recession, it is going to be difficult for us to avoid a recession without some type of stimulus program.”

As far as gaining political capital for a third round of quantitative easing, Roberts says the Federal Reserve doesn’t need it since it functions independent of Congress. “Ben Bernanke can launch a third round of quantitative easing if he chooses to do so. I think there is a likelihood we could see more stimulus,” he said. Still, he says that move is contingent on what happens in Europe, China and stateside.

Roberts describes the housing market as one that is still undergoing a series of changes.

He points out that a majority of recent housing starts occurred in the multifamily apartment segment, suggesting more Americans are deleveraging and realizing not everyone will own a home.

Roberts doesn’t view the past downturn or the possibility of a coming recession with doomsday glasses. Based on the supply and demand curve, the 2008 crisis was a long-time coming because government policy created a decade-long imbalance where homes were truly out of reach for borrowers and cheap credit made up the difference, he believes.

He sees recessions — when handled properly and without too much intervention — as the solution to getting demand and prices in line.

“Let’s think about the average American salary,” he said. “They make $55,000 a year. They now have to come up with a 20% down payment. Gone are the days of ninja loans. It’s going to be harder for them to qualify to buy a house. If that is the situation, prices will have to fall further than the historic norm.”

This is where Roberts throws out the possibility of another 10% to 15% home price decline.

But Roberts is more optimistic in one way: he sees recessions as a natural occurrence of a functioning marketplace. “They are a natural part of a market cycle,” he said. “If the economy just goes up, things get excessively expensive and you set yourself up for a 2008-type crash.”

He believes the recent pain is the result of government involvement in pushing homeownership and cheap credit. “The American Dream has never been homeownership,” he said. “It was to have an opportunity to create a better life for yourself.”

His verdict on the years leading up to the crisis and the past few years: “We basically tattooed American society with a horrible investment structure.”

By Kerri Panchuk.

Madison Real Estate Foreclosure News

Posted on: December 13th, 2011 by jenmatt No Comments

Borrowers may give up future claims in foreclosure reviewsMadison Wisconsin Real Estate

A mortgage servicer may be granted a waiver from future claims depending on what sort of remediation a borrower gets from the foreclosure reviews conducted under federal consent orders.

Independent consultants, approved by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Federal Reserve, will review nearly 4.5 million foreclosure files over the next several months. They will be looking for any harm caused by improper practices uncovered last year.

The OCC, Federal Reserve and the 14 largest servicers are working out how to pay for any borrower claims for which consultants find the banks culpable. OCC Chief Counsel Julie Williams faced down skeptical lawmakers in a Senate subcommittee hearing Tuesday, pledging the consultants were independent and that the reviews would be thorough.

But she also revealed in some instances, they would be final. In some cases, a borrower would not be able to bring future claims against the servicer if he or she takes the payout.

“There could be situations where it may be sensible where a servicer gets a waiver. If the borrower gets the home back, expenses paid, maybe a lump sum payment on top of that, for a package of remediation like that, a waiver would be appropriate,” Williams said, adding that borrowers would be able to make that decision before agreeing to the deal.

A mailing campaign began Nov. 1. Borrowers who went through the foreclosure process at some point in 2009 or 2010 are eligible to apply by April.

It’s still unknown how any borrowers affected by the problems will be paid. The OCC provided 22 examples for what would constitute a “financial injury” (found on page 13 of Williams’ testimony).

But on the form filled out during the claims process, borrowers will have other options.

“The way the form is designed is it clusters some specific questions around the injury guidance,” Williams said. “But there is a portion of the form where the borrower can tell their story. What we want is the borrower to tell their story for how they were injured, and we will certainly try to get the message out about those.”

Anthony Sanders, a professor of finance at George Mason University, was concerned about the cost and time spent during the reviews, which may not net very many actual claims. He estimates the reviews will cost more than $11 billion if costs $2,500 per loan file. He said he expects less than 100 instances of wrongful foreclosures on military members and less than 50,000 modification errors would be found.

“In terms of technical errors (such as robo-signing), it is difficult forecast how many there will be, but technical errors like robo-signing should not result in any financial harm to borrowers since they would be foreclosed upon after the documentation error is corrected,” Sanders said in testimony.

It is still up in the air how borrowers would be compensated for robo-signing, the term used to describe how servicers and their third-party firms signed foreclosure affidavits en masse without review of the loan documentation.

According to Williams’ testimony, one of the examples of financial harm would be when “the servicer was not the proper party, or authorized to act on behalf of the proper party, under the applicable state law to foreclose on the borrower’s home, and this resulted in or may result in multiple foreclosure actions or proceedings.”

Konrad Alt is the managing director for Promontory Financial Group, which is conducting the reviews for Wells Fargo (WFC: 25.79 -1.90%) and Bank of America (BAC: 5.32 -2.39%). He said they are still waiting on direction from the OCC on whether robo-signing would result in a pay out to the borrower.

“Many things can go wrong with a mortgage or a foreclosure, and reviewing a particular file to ascertain what if anything did go wrong can be both difficult and time consuming,” Alt said.

The OCC did not disclose any past history between the consultants and the servicers but Williams did assure the subcommittee it caught any conflicts of interest. The Fed has not released engagement letters, yet.

Chief Counsel Scott Alvarez said in written testimony he expects the Fed “to disclose significant portions of the final engagement letters, consistent with the need to protect proprietary financial information and personal privacy.”

“We believe we are independent,” Alt said. “Our entire business model is based on independence not only in this instance but in all instances. If we fall short in this manner it would be fundamentally detrimental to our long-term success.”

Lawmakers on the subcommittee were not convinced the reviews will be transparent nor fair enough. Foreclosures will continue for those borrowers still in the process while being considered for remediation, and some senators were concerned the servicers were given too much room when choosing the consultants.

“The last thing homeowners need after so many challenges is one more process where there’s not full and accurate disclosure. The failure to stop the foreclosure process while saying there may be a remedy is a continuation of this,” said Sen. Jeff Merkley, D-Ore. “It’s disturbing.”

by JON PRIOR

 

How Foreclosure Effects Your Credit

Posted on: October 26th, 2011 by jenmatt 1 Comment

Are you currently considering a foreclosure in Madison, WI? The way you approach mortgage delinquency and possible foreclosure can have an effect on your credit score. Prudent handling of the problem can limit, although not eliminate, the damages.

Payment history makes up the largest portion—35%—of your FICO score. And the higher your credit score, the harder you will be hit by a foreclosure, or by whatever alternate route you take because becoming delinquent on your debts had not been a regular occurrence. That is, if you’ve been good until now, one late payment has a disproportionate effect.

The biggest negative hit comes with your first late payment. If you have a credit score of 780, your first late payment could reduce your score by 90 to 110 points. And if your score is 680, it could fall by 60 to 80 points, according to Barry Paperno, consumer operations manager for myFICO. With a second late payment, your score could be hit by another 50 or so points.

If the loan goes to foreclosure, still another 50 points could be knocked off your score. If your lender doesn’t immediately report your late payment to the credit bureaus, the delay could make an even greater hit when it finally is reported.

Proper management of delinquency

However, with the first late payment on your mortgage, you can consider alternatives that may prevent you from going all the way to foreclosure, an event that probably will prevent you from buying another home with a mortgage for at least three to five years because of how lenders view a foreclosure and because your score will be so low.

A loan modification commonly is reported to the credit bureaus as “partial payments being accepted,” which in terms of credit damage, is scarcely different from a 30-day late home. But you have a better chance of keeping your home and limiting damage to your credit score if you can get a trial modification under the federal government’s Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP).

You should know that lenders use codes from the Consumer Data Industry Association (CDIA) when reporting loans to credit bureaus, where they ultimately influence FICO scores. At first, the loan ends up generating an AC code, which indicates that partial payments are being made—not much help.

However, when that three-month trial period is successfully completed and the trial modification is converted to a permanent modification, the loan gets the CN code, which indicates the loan was modified under a federal government plan. This new CN code, which lenders are free to use or not use, does not currently affect the score because FICO has yet to assess its strength as a risk predictor, according to myFICO’s Paperno.

Other loan modifications, such as those done under a lender’s own program, may be or may not be reported as partial payments without violating the Fair Credit Reporting Act. In general, get some understanding of how the bank is going to be reporting any potential resolution, advises Paperno.

And as you live up to the terms of your new permanent modification, those late payments keep moving further into the past and the size of the dings on your credit score keep shrinking. At the same time, as you make your new, reduced payments on time, your score will begin rising. And because your new monthly payment is lower, your monthly debt obligation is lower as well, again helping raise your credit score.

Other choices and implications

As an alternative, a forbearance agreement requires you to make reduced “good faith” payments for two to six months to re-establish a positive payment history, after which you may have to resume your original monthly payments or continue reduced payments under a loan modification and sometimes immediately pay off the missed amounts. A forbearance agreement, as a partial payment program, would have the same impact on your credit score as a trial modification.

Other options include a deed-in-lieu of foreclosure, under which you turn ownership of your home to your lender, or a short sale, which is a sale for less than you owe but that is accepted by your lender as full payment. There are advantages to each, but Fair Isaac, developer of the FICO score, stresses that contrary to popular belief, foreclosure, short sale and deed-in-lieu will all have a similar impact on the your FICO score.

Other factors can affect credit scores and their ability to bounce back after any event, and you should check with a financial professional for the details in your particular situation.

State law also can affect your credit status. If, with a short sale, the proceeds are less than the amount of principal still owed, it could be treated as a charge-off and, in states that allow deficiency judgments, you could be on the hook for the difference.

If you are in the Home Affordable Foreclosure Alternatives (HAFA) program, the lender must agree not to come after you for the deficiency judgment. However, even in states where lenders can’t come after you, the rules can be complex, so be sure to have a lawyer review your paperwork.

If a deed-in-lieu or short sale is reported as a charge-off, a “settled” debt, a “debt satisfied for less than the full amount” or as “not paid as agreed,” the impact to your score could be the same as that caused by that first late payment. Ideally, you want your debt reported as “paid in full,” “paid satisfactorily” or as a “total satisfaction of debt.”

Generally, a deed-in-lieu, a short sale or a foreclosure, including those that occur after walking away from your home, are all reported the same. Once reported that’s the end of it, except for the steps you will have to take to start rebuilding your credit score, and finding another place to live, which will have to be a rental property: You won’t be able to get another mortgage for at least two years, and then only after getting your credit score up to at least 580 for an FHA-insured mortgage and 680 for a conventional mortgage.

Foreclosures can be confusing but  an informed realtor can help guide you thru the foreclosure process. What are your concerns and questions?

 

 

 

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Five Tips For Buying a Foreclosure

Posted on: October 13th, 2011 by jenmatt No Comments

Buying a foreclosed home in Madison, WI can be a great investment for your family, but it is a little different from buying a typical resale.

In many cases, only one real estate agent is involved. The seller wants a preapproval letter from a lender before accepting an offer. There often is little, if any, room for negotiation. The home comes as is, and it’s up to the buyer to pay for repairs.On the upside, most bank-owned homes are vacant, which can speed up the process of moving in.

“Buying a foreclosure is definitely a bit of a grind. It’s not easy,” says Robert Jenson, owner and founder of the Jenson Group at RE/MAX Central in Las Vegas. “You’re getting fantastic pricing, but sometimes it takes going through a lot of houses and writing a lot of offers to get the home you want.”

In Jenson’s stomping grounds of Las Vegas and surrounding Clark County, the housing bust hit hard, and upward of 80 percent of homes sold are “distressed properties” — foreclosures and short sales. (A short sale happens when the lender agrees to let the owner sell the house for less than the amount owed because the owner can’t afford the monthly payments.)

Nationwide, about one-third of sales in May were of distressed properties. A big chunk of those sales went to first-time buyers, according to Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors. “First-time buyers are concentrated in the lower price ranges, which include most of the distressed sales,” Yun says.

Before you begin the house hunt

The first two steps in buying a foreclosure should happen almost simultaneously: find a real estate agent who works directly with banks that own foreclosed homes and get a preapproval from a lender. You might find the acronym REO, which means “real estate owned” (owned by a bank, that is.) This signifies that a home has been through foreclosure and the lender is selling it.

5 steps to buying a distressed property

  1. Get preapproved for a mortgage.
  2. Find an agent specializing in foreclosures.
  3. Know how long it takes to sell a home in your price bracket.
  4. Study the sale prices of comparable homes in your area.
  5. Remember the sale is for the home as is.

With all the news today on foreclosure there may be some buyers who might be on the fence about purchasing this type of home because it seems too confusing or they may be concerned about the condition of these types of homes. Are you one of these buyers?  We are here to help and to answer any questions you have, let us know you concerns. Contact us today to see if pursuing a foreclosed home is the best option for you!

 

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Short Sales vs. Foreclosures

Posted on: September 12th, 2011 by jenmatt No Comments

Many Madison homeowners who need to sell their homes do not know whether to do it through a short sale or foreclosure. These homeowners should know that short sales offer the homeowner many more benefits than going through a foreclosure. In the case of a short sale, the benefits to the homeowner are:

• Only late payments on the mortgage show on a credit report and after the sale of the home, the mortgage will be reported as paid or negotiated. This could lower a homeowner’s credit score by as little as 50 points if all other payments have been made. The effect of a short sale can be as brief as 12 to 18 months.
• A Short Sale is not reported on a credit history. There is no specific reporting item for ‘short sale.’ The loan is typically reported as ‘paid in full, settled.’
• A Short Sale on its own does not challenge most security clearances whereas a foreclosure does.
• A Short Sale is not reported on a credit report and is therefore does not present a challenge to employment.
• In some successful short sales it is possible to convince the lender to give up the right to pursue a deficiency judgment against the homeowner, (i.e., payment of the shortfall or the difference between what was owed and what the bank received.)
• Under the Mortgage Forgiveness Debt Relief Act of 2007, if a deficiency is forgiven or cancelled, the home is a principal residence, and it is worth less than $2 million, the tax on the deficiency will be forgiven. This benefit applies to homes that are the subject of a Short Sale and a Foreclosure.

 

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